Auto-cut highlight reel

He is opting out of soybeans for now: the daily chart looks solid with a good base but has given no buy signal, while the monthly chart is one massive flag with an Oracle number at new lows around $758.

On March sugar (No. 11), trading around $17, his Oracle number out to March suggests the minimum should be at least a check of the pivot point around $20–$21, which he reads as a decent, comfortable area.

Because his target is around 20–21, he says not to buy options up at that level but around the 18, 19, possibly 20 strikes — an 18/19 spread being a good shot — and notes sugar's long beaten-up period keeps option premiums light.

Walking through the platform, he shows the 18 call bid/ask at 86–90 versus the 18/19 spread at 25–33, so filling near 28 costs just over $300 per spread and would clear about $800 if sugar closes above $19 at the February 2026 expiry.

He then widens to an 18/19.50 spread, filling five at a limit of 40 for a total of $2,217 in the paper account — about $450 each for a 1.5-cent ($1,600) spread, which he calculates as roughly $1,200 clear profit each if sugar closes above $19.50 in February.

He suggests 70% of the resource portion of a portfolio go into top-tier, cash-rich, unhedged miners plus royalty/streaming companies, with a 15% stop when first getting involved — framed as guidance, not a rule.

Rather than leverage he prefers writing covered calls on stock he owns — "rent your stock" — expecting roughly 17% a year minimum from top-tier names, writing about one strike out of the money one to three months out, and simply re-buying and re-writing if he gets called out; he caps any leverage he does use at 50%.

Because he considers picking a top an amateur's game, he published two silver scenarios ($100 and $200) two to three months ahead of the run and suggested scaling out — 20% at $80, another 20% at $100, another 20% at $120 — rather than trying to hit the high; silver did reach $120 in the morning and closed with a large red candle that day.

For the rest of the summer he expects a broad consolidation range, with a possible breakout in the fall around September or October taking silver back to about $100 or, at minimum, the high 80s — around 88; he does not expect the old high to be challenged before year-end unless there is more disruption or uncertainty than already exists.

Over the next year to year and a half he thinks we are at the end game with a huge acceleration in both metals, but he stresses the market knows more than he does and says he would only tell subscribers he is wrong if price closes above the horizontal range top three days running on above-average volume with commensurate news — his "Morgan rule".

He says gold and silver each have two overlapping signals this week — a daily and a weekly bottoming signal — which he calls stronger than one signal, but he explicitly adds it does not mean the absolute bottom is in.

The Dow hit his target on the 7th/8th of July and is now pulling back; he says this may be where it starts rolling down, but a top doesn't happen in a day, he doesn't expect the structure to break right away, and he sees a possible bounce back to about 52 or 52.5 since all indicators except the daily are still strong.

If the Dow keeps going this way he expects a stair-step down over the next couple of months into the fall toward the big 50,000 support, with people only later recognising it as a roll-over — but he frames this as a slow pullback that is hard to distinguish from a correction in a bull market.

Silver bottomed at exactly 55 on the futures contract on Friday against his mid-to-low 50s zone (with 50–52 called ideal) and now trades at 59.48, up $2.41 — a bounce he framed in advance as possibly short term, not long term.

Bitcoin has completed the right shoulder of the inverted head and shoulders he described earlier, with his target around 68 to 70; daily and weekly indicators look positive but the monthly does not, so he says the bottom is not confirmed and may only confirm within the next four weeks.

He says the Iran/US ceasefire collapsed, Tehran is retaliating against American assets and Houthi allies have declared a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, which he expects to affect oil prices, at least initially overseas.

The Dow hit his 53.5 target at solid structure; he says if it breaks and closes below roughly 50 without reversing back up, he thinks it heads back to the breakout point around 50,000, which could be the start of the move that eventually brings a lot lower — he stresses looking for step downs, not crashes.

Last week's daily and weekly signal in gold — which he stressed was only a short-term indicator meaning a decent bounce — produced a move from just below $4,000 ($39.60 handle) to $4,170, and today's $100 pullback is either a good opportunity or a break of structure; if it breaks the bottom of the box he says a $400–$500 drop over the next month or two is possible, with the emphasis that none of that has happened yet.

Silver ran from $55 to $61.25 yesterday on the same signal, about a $6.50 move, and is now correcting — he hopes it is a one to two day correction, is holding long term with no intention of selling, says a drop to 50 or even 48 is very possible since this was just a bounce, and looks for a move above the 63–64 pivot to say it is on its way back up.

Bitcoin bottomed at 58,000 in line with his earlier call for a 50s handle and an August bottom, and he now sees an inverted head-and-shoulders with a target around 70,000 — but he says there is no confirmation the bottom is in, it may form another shoulder first, and he keeps orders between 48,000 and 55,000 in case of a catastrophic drop he currently puts at maybe 10%.

Soybeans: no signal, passing

Sugar setup and target

Fibonacci retracement check

TWS paper trading setup

Sugar contract specs

Placing the call spread

Outright October option

He says if beans break this structure in the next week or two it would line up exactly with the September/October harvest, so a good harvest could bring a big rout in prices — since he is looking at March options there is no rush, and he will wait to see if it holds.

He measures a roughly 61% Fibonacci retracement coinciding with the green zone as an extra reason to like sugar, while stating Fibonacci levels are not very accurate for him and are only useful to confirm another indicator.

He explains the sugar spec sheet: contract size 112,000 pounds, so a one-cent move is about $11.50 and every full dollar is $1,120 — meaning an 18/19 spread captures $1,120 at most, and after roughly $300–$350 cost nets approximately $750–$850.

For an outright option he switches to the October contract at $16.79 (versus March at $17.40), where a 17 call with 58 days costs about $0.50–$0.70; he says a spread is not worth doing when you only get back $100–$200, and that spreads need time on both sides so someone else pays for your time.

He closes by saying he sees nothing fantastic happening quite yet, but it does look like sugar is bottoming, and recommends sticking to the paper trading account unless you really know what you are doing.

Oracle number for new lows on the monthly chart

current level of the March contract at the time of the video

his Oracle target out to March — minimum expectation is a check of this pivot point

strike range he suggests buying rather than buying at the target

March contract Friday close per the spec sheet

March contract price shown in the platform

first bull call spread, quoted 25–33, costing just over $300

wider bull call spread he places, five lots at limit 40 for $2,217

October contract price when switching to an outright option

October call strike he mentions as buyable outright for about $0.50

MARCH SUGAR SPREAD

Top-tier mining portfolio

Covered calls and leverage

Futures and silver exit plan

Physical metal and premiums

Uranium, AI, tokenization

Paper silver and bank fraud

Outlook, trust and contact

He rarely uses futures and tells members to stay away, but recounts his 2011 silver trade: the $19 channel broke, he went long and silver ran to about $26 where he called a top that held only briefly, then after QE was announced he re-entered at $26 and rode it to about $48, getting the top within three days.

On physical he says premiums make trading it impractical — roughly 10% each way, so $20–25 of premium on a $50 ticket — and that wholesalers are currently so flush he can buy metal under spot; his approach is to hold physical, borrow against it if money is needed rather than sell and trigger a tax event, and if you want price exposure to short futures or an ETF against metal you already own to be delta neutral.

He rates PAX Gold as the best of the tokenized gold products but places it only fourth or fifth in his preference behind physical, an ETF and futures, and he expects everything to be tokenized eventually — his objection is philosophical, that tokenized money can be tracked and traced at point of sale.

his entry in December 1979 in his futures account

observed move in about a month after he put it back on the list

2011 top he called, which held only briefly, and his re-entry level after QE

where the 2011 run ended; he exited within three days of the top

first tranche of his suggested staged exit — sell 20%

second tranche — sell another 20%; also the level of his $100 silver scenario PDF

third tranche — sell another 20%; also the high reached before a large red candle

level he said would stall the market, and where many long-term holders sold out

level at which dealer working capital was consumed; wholesalers now flush, metal available under spot

at-the-money one-month call premium observed before the breakout — about $25,000 per contract

the pullback so far, which he reads as still undervalued despite gold getting ahead of itself

his target on a possible fall breakout, September or October

level he mentions he might exit at next cycle, expecting to be criticised for it

DAVID MORGAN

Setup and prior calls

Dow and NASDAQ

Gold and silver

Bitcoin and altcoins

Crude, softs, sugar

Grains

Mining stocks and close

Gold reversed on Friday after trading below $4,000 and is now at $4,062, up about $45 on the day and roughly $60 from the low, with both a daily and a weekly buy signal; he reads this as possibly the bottom and hopes for more upside over the next few weeks, while warning it may take months before prices are much higher.

On crude he says his indicator points to possibly one more push, tomorrow or the next day, into the mid-80s before a short-term sell signal; he holds 70/80, 75/85 and 80/90 call spreads out to October and advises milking about 80% of the profit before taking them off.

Soybeans made a triple top and reached 1225 against his 1250 target; he says we may have seen the short-term top, he has taken 70% of his profits off, and he thinks a correction back to $12 this week is possible — while noting a move to 1275–13 later is also possible if weather doesn't change.

He calls the current levels in silver and gold miners — First Majestic, Alamos, Empress Royalty, Equinox, and Newmont near 89 with his green box starting around 87 — a spot for long-term accumulation, explicitly not for trading or flipping in a few weeks.

possible bounce level roughly halfway back after the pullback

the big major support he points to further down

possible upside on the current bounce, maybe not even reaching it, before going lower again

level it dropped below on Friday before reversing

current price Tuesday, up about $45 on the day and ~$60 from the low

Friday's low on the futures contract, the observed bottom so far

the bottoming zone he had called for well in advance

his target from the inverted head and shoulders

observed drop of about 40% since the May reversal spike

where he expects a possible final push before a short-term sell signal

the buy area he had flagged earlier; spreads bought 70/80, 75/85, 80/90 out to October

pullback low reached against his buy target just below $300

his next upside target between now and the fall

the higher level he has been talking about over the next month or so if the move continues

high reached, missing the target by about a penny and a half

possible downside from the 1-2-3-4-5 count he points to

accumulation zone he identifies, one more leg down to reach it

level where he says the target was taken off

MARKET UPDATE

Geopolitics and intro

Dollar, Dow, semiconductors

Bitcoin

Crude oil

Coffee and sugar

Grains: corn, soybeans, wheat

On the dollar index he says that starting the first week of August there is a chance of more serious issues around 102.5, and he is not sure it gets overcome — from there either another correction or a turn back down; a close around 103.50–104 would in his view set the tone for the next few months.

On the semiconductor index he says it has kind of topped out at a critical level with what looks like a hangman candle and an island gap, but calls it two possibilities: either the top is in, or a five-point reverse wave that makes a brand new high — he expects the final hurrah between now and next spring with volatility that makes direction hard to read.

Crude is at the top of the box near the 96 structure; he says a move above about 98 would confirm the corner has been turned, while his indicators suggest a potential short-term top in the next day or two, possibly by Monday or Tuesday — though a weekend gap up to $105 or $108 would not shock him, and he warns futures traders about the volatility.

Soybeans reached his long-standing 1240 target right as the August options expire tomorrow; he says get out of those options by tomorrow, doubts 1260 can be taken out, expects a healthy correction while allowing he could be wrong, and notes major trouble around 1320 if it gets there.

Wheat reached his 7–7.20 target area (now 7.10) and he reads the pattern as three waves to a high, so he thinks it is running out of juice — he says he could be wrong but would be happy to take profit and is pretty much out of the grains after today or tomorrow, waiting for a correction to consider re-entering.

observed move off the low, about $7 or $35,000 per contract

possible more serious issues starting first week of August

close above would set a constructive tone in his reading

break and close below without reversal would point lower

breakout point he expects as the destination if structure fails

observed high of the bounce, about $170 in three to four days

possible decline over one to two months if the bottom of the box breaks

where the dotted line should be raised to after the update

yesterday's high, about a $6.50 move from $55

possible downside levels he has flagged before

pivot point that would signal a resumption higher

observed bottom, matching his 50s-handle call

his target from the inverted head-and-shoulders

possible run-up ahead of a Clarity Act announcement, with risk of a sell-off after

above this he treats the turn as confirmed

prior buy zone he calls a great opportunity if revisited

possible upside on a weekend gap and pump

level he expects a pullback to and would look to re-enter with March/May options

his long-stated target, reached at option expiry

major trouble area if reached, where he expects a correction

possible retreat if the weather breaks and a bumper crop develops

target area drawn last week; currently 7.10

Subscriber Dashboard

MARKET ORACLE 20 MIN UPDATES

WEEKEND ANALYSIS

GUEST INTERVIEWS

EDUCATIONAL VIDEOS

RECOMMENDED VIDEOS

MARKET ALERTS

FORWARD GUIDANCE