Auto-cut highlight reel

Why sugar, not soybeans

Reading the target & Fibonacci

Interactive Brokers setup

Loading the contract & strikes

Contract specs

Building the bull call spread

Placing the order

Outright options & time value

Why he currently prefers sugar to soybeans: sugar sits in a support zone and he expects it to at least reach the 20–21 pivot by March, while the soybean monthly chart looks like one large flag with a possible move down toward 758 by the fall if the harvest is good — so he is staying out of beans until he gets an actual buy signal.

Reading the target: the 61% Fibonacci retracement coincides with the chart's support box. He is blunt that Fibonacci levels are "not very accurate at all" and only worth using to confirm another indicator.

Setup: use the Interactive Brokers TWS desktop app rather than the phone or the web portal, and sign into a paper-trading account — the red bar and $1M of play money — before risking anything.

Entering the contract: pull up SB #11 sugar, the March (Feb 27 '26) contract, load strikes from 17 to 22 in half-dollar steps, and select the Feb/March expiry, 213 days out with a last trading day of 17 February.

Know the specs before trading: one sugar contract is 112,000 lbs, a one-cent move is $11.50, and a full $1 move is $1,120 — which is why a $1-wide spread caps the payout at $1,120.

The trade he demonstrates: buy the 18 call, sell the 19 call for roughly $300, which would clear about $800 if sugar closes above 19 at the February expiry. Widening it to an 18/19.5 spread costs roughly $100–150 more for about $500 more potential profit; he places five of them at a limit of 40, $2,217 in total.

The rule he stresses: put a spread on as a spread and take it off as a spread. Legging out leaves you holding a naked short position, which he calls very dangerous.

MARCH SUGAR SPREAD

Introducing David Morgan

Top-tier miner portfolio

'Rent your stock' — covered calls

Futures & the 2011 silver trade

Physical vs paper metal

Hedging physical with futures

AI, tokenization & PAX Gold

Manipulation & storage lawsuits

Price outlook

Trust as the driver

Wrap-up & contact

Portfolio approach, which he stresses is guidance and "not set in stone": roughly 70% of the resource allocation in top-tier, cash-rich, unhedged miners plus royalty/streaming companies — and in his view three or four names are enough rather than a long list (Pan American, Wheaton, Franco, Royal Gold).

"Rent your stock": write covered calls one strike out of the money on top-tier miners. He claims this yields about 17% a year as a minimum, and argues getting called out simply means someone bought your rental at a profit you had already locked in.

Don't try to pick tops — scale out instead. He told members to sell 20% of their silver at $80, then $100, then $120 rather than guess the peak, again calling it suggestions and guidance rather than absolutes. He notes he has called tops three times but says that doesn't mean he will manage it a fourth.

Physical metal is for holding, not trading: premiums of roughly 10% each way mean a $50 ticket can carry $20–25 of round-trip cost, so the price has to move a great deal before a trade pays. If you need cash he suggests borrowing against it rather than selling and triggering a tax event — and he puts a sensible overall allocation at around 10%.

Hedging physical with paper: selling a contract or two near a spike locks in gains while keeping the metal, leaving you delta-neutral on the portion hedged. Both he and Martee use this, and both frame the futures market itself as sound in principle but abused in practice.

On Bitcoin and paper metal: he calls the original Bitcoin idea phenomenal but says it has been "hijacked". With a large ETF, in his view, you own shares rather than coins and would be paid in dollars if things unwound — and he raises the same double-counting concern about COMEX silver also being counted inside ETFs. He is explicit that this is his opinion.

His expectation, not a prediction he insists on: a broad trading range for the rest of the summer, a breakout in the fall around September or October, and silver back toward a minimum of the high 80s or roughly $100 this year. He does not expect the old high to be challenged before year-end unless there is more disruption than already exists, and looks for a much larger acceleration over the next year to eighteen months — while saying the markets know more than he does and that he will publish an alert if the market proves him wrong.

Asked for the single driver, he answers with one word: trust — in the political class, medicine, education, banking, and ultimately in what money will buy. He points to Weimar, Zimbabwe, Turkey and Argentina, and notes AI has made the problem worse, citing a channel using his own name, image and voice that outdraws his real one.

DAVID MORGAN

Thesis: tops & bottoms

Dow & NASDAQ

Gold

Silver

Bitcoin

Altcoins

Coffee, Cocoa & Sugar

Grains

Miners

Outro

Possible top in the indexes, possible bottom in metals: a top from mid-July onward would be a slow roll-over rather than a one-day event, gold and silver show overlapping daily and weekly signals, and he states explicitly that this does not mean the absolute bottom is in.

The Dow hit his target on 7–8 July and is now pulling back. He says we don't know whether this is the top because "the top doesn't happen in a day", does not expect the structure to break right away, and sees a possible bounce back toward 52,000–52,500 before any stair-step decline toward the 50,000 support.

Gold reversed on Friday after dipping below $4,000 and trades at $4,062, about $60/oz off the low. He calls this possibly the bottom, supported by both daily and weekly signals, while cautioning that it may take months before prices are much higher.

Silver fell to 55 on the futures, inside the mid-to-low-50s zone he had named, and trades at 59.48, up $2.41 on the day. He framed this as possibly a short-term bottom and explicitly not a long-term one, and points viewers to the miners.

Bitcoin has formed the right shoulder of an inverse head-and-shoulders and trades near $66,500, up $1,200; his target is "probably" the 68,000–70,000 area. Daily and weekly indicators look positive, the monthly does not, and he states the bottom is not confirmed — it may take another month.

Soybeans made a triple top near 1225 against his 1250 target and are running out of steam. He says he is not sure and that they may have seen the short-term top; he has taken 70% of his own profits off, with three days left on the options.

Wheat reached just under $6.99, about a penny and a half short of his $7 target. Pressure is now on the downside, and he reads a five-wave count as suggesting a possible move back toward 640.

On the miners (First Majestic, Newmont, Pan American, Wheaton) he sees buy zones and a good chance of bottoming, but frames them explicitly as long-term accumulation rather than trading — and notes that the short-term buy signal on Pan American "doesn't mean anything".

MARKET UPDATE

Intro & geopolitics

US Dollar Index

Dow Jones

Semiconductors (SOX)

Crude Oil

Coffee & Sugar

He wants to add short clips to the member area: being able to "play a five or 10 second clip" of what he actually said, so subscribers can hear the original rather than take his word for it — noting that people tend to remember only the side of a call that suits them.

Last week's daily-and-weekly reversal signal on gold and silver played out as hoped: silver ran from $55 to nearly $62, roughly a $35,000 move on a single contract. He is careful to note he had called it a short-term indicator only, meaning a decent bounce rather than a confirmed low.

On the dollar index he sees early August as the risk window: there is a chance of more serious trouble around 102.5, and he says he is not sure whether it will be overcome — from there either another correction or a turn back down. A close around 103.50–104 would in his view set a constructive tone for the next few months.

The Dow hit his 53,500 target. If it breaks and closes below roughly 50 and cannot reverse, he thinks it heads back to the 50,000 breakout level, which he calls very doable — adding that tops usually only become visible weeks or months later, so he looks for step-downs rather than crashes.

Gold ran to about $4,170, a roughly $170 move in three or four days, and is now pulling back. He frames it as strictly conditional: either a healthy pullback and an opportunity, or — if it breaks the structure and fails to hold the box — a possible $400–500 drop over one to two months. He emphasises that none of that has happened yet.

Bitcoin bottomed at 58,000 in line with his earlier call for a late-July/August low and has formed an inverse head-and-shoulders; his target is around 70,000, though he says it may not go straight there. He thinks the bottom is being put in "as we speak" but states explicitly that there is no confirmation yet, and keeps buy orders at 48,000–55,000 for a shock he puts at maybe a 10% chance.

Crude oil sits at the top of its box. Above 98 he would treat the turn as confirmed, and the $60–70 zone remains the buy-back area he acted on himself — but his indicators suggest a potential short-term top within a day or two, while a weekend gap higher toward $105–108 is also, in his words, in the cards.

Soybeans reached the 1240 target exactly as the August options expire the next day, so he urges taking the profit today rather than waiting. He expects a healthy correction and doubts a sustained move above 1260, while noting he could be wrong; 1320 is the next major trouble level.

Across the grains he is stepping aside after strong runs — corn eyeing just under $5 to 5.10, wheat at 7.10 against the 7–7.20 area he had drawn — preferring to re-enter after a correction. He adds explicitly that he is not saying it cannot go higher, only describing what he himself is doing.

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